The Chaos Scenario: The Big Media Disruption Goes Well Beyond the Recession

A lot of radio station owners have their lenders believing that the recession is at the root of their problems — and once the economy rebounds, business will return to normal. They are very, very wrong…

Bob Garfield

In my recent presentation on Innovation at the Public Radio Development and Marketing Conference (PRDMC) and FMQB’s Triple A Conference, I made a passing reference to Bob Garfiled’s new book The Chaos Scenario.

Bob writes for Advertising Age and also co-hosts NPR’s On the Media.

I referenced The Chaos Scenario while building an argument that radio, and frankly all big media, was in severe need of innovation — and soon. On the radio side for example, as stations and groups slide toward insolvency, we’re running into lenders and bankers who have been led to believe that the root of radio’s problems is the recession. And once the economy bounces back, so will station revenues and values.

We wish.

Unfortunately, the reality is that broadband, changes in consumer behavior, and the collapse of the advertising supported media model were already smoldering– threatening to torch big media. The recession is just kerosene on the fire.

Oh, and that collapse of the advertising supported media model? That’s where Bob comes in.

Bob did the math earlier than the rest of us when he connected the dots between the increasing amount of the advertising spend dedicated to new media, and the growth of new media itself.

In short, he saw an explosive growth of advertising inventory. And even a rookie salesperson knows that an excess of inventory means that rates collapse. There is, and will continue to be, much more inventory than ad dollars could ever hope to fill.

And this is just one reason why there will never be a return to “normal.”

There’s more, but let’s have Bob tell the story in this teaser for The Chaos Scenario.